Read the full article here in the Portland Press Herald
Let’s consider someone named Theo. He studied physics in college, is particularly outspoken against unregulated capitalism, and is critical of the U.S’ lack of universal healthcare. Which of the following is more probable: 1) Theo runs his own business, or 2) Theo runs his own business and he is a socialist? Given Theo’s opinions, we might think that option two is the most probable. It might be surprising, but given what we know about Theo, mathematics points us in the opposite direction. The less specific option is guaranteed to be either more or equally probable to the chance of one and two both being true due to the probability of conjunction. In short, when we need to think about whether we should believe the truth of various claims, and we have no ability to access empirical evidence for ourselves, we should always go with the least specific option until there is overwhelming evidence to believe otherwise….